Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) trying to break out

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) trying to break out

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) trying to break out

The Australian dollar has rallied a bit during the trading session on Monday, breaking above the 0.69 level before pulling back a bit. However, this is a market that is trying to break out, and if we can clear the top of the range for the trading session on Monday, this market is very likely to continue going towards the 0.70 area, perhaps even higher than that. The Australian dollar has been trying to turn things around, making “higher lows” as we go along.

That’s a good sign, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s can it be easy to trade this market going forward. Remember, if we do continue to go higher, that means that there is a trend change in the works, but those are almost always very messy affairs. If that’s going to be the case, it’s very likely that the market will struggle going forward, but I still believe in the upward momentum. If we get more of a “risk on” type of move, it’s very likely that the Australian dollar will continue to be a beneficiary, especially considering that the United States and China are getting ready to sign a “phase 1 deal.” Ultimately, Australia will be one of the bigger beneficiaries from the situation, especially if the Chinese economy can continue to accelerate. If it does not, that could weigh upon the Aussie but from historical standpoint we are at very low levels and therefore it’s much more likely to go higher than lower at this point.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 0.70.

The projected lower bound is: 0.68.

The projected closing price is: 0.69.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 3 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 34.2619. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 50.04. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -56. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed up 0.000 at 0.690. Volume was 1% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 16% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.690 0.692 0.688 0.690 51,943
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.69 0.69 0.69
Volatility: 8 7 8
Volume: 49,096 45,969 66,711

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX AUD= is currently 0.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 21 periods.

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