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Wednesday, June 16, 2021

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) trading range is tight as most of the major players have taken to the sidelines

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) trading range is tight as most of the major players have taken to the sidelines

The Australian Dollar is trading slightly lower on Monday. There has been no follow-through to the upside following Friday’s strong rebound rally, following the prior session’s steep sell-off.

The trading range is tight as most of the major players have taken to the sidelines ahead of Tuesday’s release of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy meeting minutes. Traders are hoping the minutes shed some light on the timing of the next rate cut by policymakers.

Helping to underpin prices is increasing optimism over a U.S.-China trade deal after two U.S. officials said a deal was close last week, and China confirmed over the weekend that talks have been “constructive.”

Last week, the Aussie plunged after employment data raised the chances of another RBA rate cut. However, buyers have reemerged on the hope of a trade deal.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through last week’s low at .6770 will signal the return of sellers. The main trend will change to up on a trade through the last main top at .6930.

The main range is .6671 to .6930. Its retracement zone at .6800 to .6770 is support. This zone stopped the selling on November 14 at .6770.

The short-term range is .6930 to .6770. Its retracement zone at .6850 to .6869 is the primary upside target and potential resistance. Since the main trend is down, sellers are likely to come in on a test of this zone.

The major resistance zone is .6877 to .6925. This zone stopped the rally at .6930 on October 31.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 0.69.

The projected lower bound is: 0.67.

The projected closing price is: 0.68.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 3 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 46.1268. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 44.53. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 73 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -98. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed down -0.000 at 0.680. Volume was 97% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 30% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.681 0.681 0.680 0.680 1,957
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.68 0.68 0.69
Volatility: 6 7 8
Volume: 45,190 55,580 77,679

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX AUD= is currently 1.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 22 periods.

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