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Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) trading lower in reaction to weaker-than-expected trade balance data from China


Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) trading lower in reaction to weaker-than-expected trade balance data from China

The Australian Dollar is trading lower on Monday in reaction to weaker-than-expected trade balance data from China. The Aussie is also being pressured by Friday’s stronger-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and consumer sentiment reports, which should be enough to prevent the Fed from cutting rates again on Wednesday.

China’s exports in November shrank for the fourth consecutive month, underscoring persistent pressures on manufacturers from the Sino-U.S. trade war but growth in imports may be a sign that Beijing’s stimulus steps are helping to stoke demand.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .6754 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a trade through .6930.

Last week’s two day surge did nothing to the trend or momentum. It was just a strong short-covering rally.

On the upside, the major resistance is the retracement zone at .6877 to .6925.

The main range is .6671 to .6930. Its retracement zone at .6800 to .6770 is the next potential downside target. It is also potential support.

Daily Technical Forecast

If the downside momentum resumes then look for sellers to take a shot at the 50% level at .6800. This is followed by a potential support cluster at .6795 to .6791. Aggressive counter-trend buyers could step in on a test of these levels. However, if .6791 fails to stop the selling then look for the move to possible extend into the Fibonacci level at .6770.

On the upside, the nearest resistance is the price cluster at .6862 to .6863. This area is followed closely by a major 50% level at .6877.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 0.69.

The projected lower bound is: 0.68.

The projected closing price is: 0.68.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 69.0034. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 52.88. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 87 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 71. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed down -0.001 at 0.683. Volume was 40% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 45% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.683 0.684 0.682 0.683 35,913
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.68 0.68 0.69
Volatility: 6 7 7
Volume: 43,794 50,433 73,394

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX AUD= is currently 1.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of AUD= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 13 periods.

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