Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) trading in a fairly narrow range
The Australian dollar remains choppy and range-bound, managing to eke out modest gains on Friday against the greenback and most of the major crosses.
While the Australian dollar has been trading in a narrow range for quite some time, China’s slowdown is likely to weigh on the currency going forward. Following its biggest ever debt-driven stimulus program in 2016 and 2017, year-over-year Chinese growth is likely to keep decelerating.
The slowdown is expected to be especially acute in the second half of this year thanks to steepening base effects (at this point last year, Chinese growth was both accelerating and fairly high). Given Australia’s significant trading relationship with China, the Australian dollar tends to broadly track developments in China’s economy. Our outlook on the Australian dollar remains bearish.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
The projected upper bound is: 0.75.
The projected lower bound is: 0.73.
The projected closing price is: 0.74.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 41.8007. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 14 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 48.77. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 59 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 33. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 14 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 19 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed up 0.000 at 0.741. Volume was 96% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 52% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.740 0.741 0.740 0.741 3,635
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.74 0.75 0.77
Volatility: 11 10 10
Volume: 95,410 101,914 92,669
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 3.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.
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