Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) traders continue to alleviate the grossly oversold trading conditions
The short-covering rally in the Australian Dollar continued for a fourth session on Friday as traders continue to alleviate the grossly oversold trading conditions. Traders started easing up on the short-side of the market early last week after the release of the ISM US Manufacturing PMI report indicated a contraction in the sector. The rally was further driven following the release of stronger-than-expected services PMI data from China.
The overall bullish tone for the week was fueled by an easing of tensions in Hong Kong, and the announcement of the resumption of trade talks between the United States and China for early October. The initial move from a multi-year low is being fueled by short-covering. With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expected to cut rates again before the end of the year, the rally is likely to be short-lived.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 0.69.
The projected lower bound is: 0.67.
The projected closing price is: 0.68.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 29 black candles for a net of 8 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 89.0687. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 23 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 56.80. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 22 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 153.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 16 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed down -0.001 at 0.684. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 34% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.683 0.684 0.683 0.684 1,119
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.68 0.69 0.70
Volatility: 7 8 9
Volume: 69,310 67,121 90,740
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 2.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 1 periods.
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