Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) this week features the RBA rate decision and retail sales
AUD/USD sparkled last week, jumping 1.3 percent. This was the pair’s best week since early September. This week features the RBA rate decision and retail sales. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
Australian CPI came in at 0.5% in Q3, matching the estimate. This was shy of the Q2 reading of 0.6%, but investors did not seem to mind. Building approvals broke a nasty streak of declines and gained 7.6%, crushing the estimate of 0.1%.In the U.S, there was good news from the GDP report for the third quarter.
The initial GDP release was stronger than expected. The economy gained 1.9%, beating the forecast of 1.6%. The Federal Reserve trimmed rates for a third straight time, which boosted the Australian dollar. Elsewhere, employment numbers were mixed.
Wage growth improved to 0.2%, up from 0.0%. However, this fell short of the forecast of 0.3%. Nonfarm payrolls slipped to 128 thousand, but this beat the forecast of 90 thousand.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.68.
The projected upper bound is: 0.70.
The projected lower bound is: 0.68.
The projected closing price is: 0.69.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 3 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 81.2315. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 66.72. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 62 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 130.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 17 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed up 0.000 at 0.692. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 14% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.691 0.692 0.691 0.692 785
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.69 0.68 0.70
Volatility: 6 7 8
Volume: 43,827 60,376 80,432
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 0.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 11 periods.