Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) The Little Aussie Battler
After gradually selling-off throughout the week, of course due to the increased fears about global growth and emerging markets, the AUD/USD broke through support at 0.7160 late on Friday, as interest rate traders boosted their bets on further interest rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve after US Non-Farm Payrolls data showed a marked climb in US wage growth. The stronger greenback pushed the Aussie Dollar to 2-and-a-half year lows at 0.7099, opening-up a serious challenge of the 0.7000 mark.
The damage to the Australian Dollar from the combination of higher global growth and financial risks, coupled with the stronger US Dollar, has not just been contained to the AUD/USD. The perennial global growth vs. risk sentiment proxy, the AUD/JPY, dropped to an 18-month low below 79.00, demonstrating the major bearish sentiment in markets at present; while the AUD/EUR traded at 0.6140 – a level not traded-at since August 2015.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.74.
The projected upper bound is: 0.72.
The projected lower bound is: 0.70.
The projected closing price is: 0.71.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 11.6337. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 33.63. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 89 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -112.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed down -0.000 at 0.711. Volume was 96% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 46% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.711 0.712 0.711 0.711 4,443
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.72 0.73 0.76
Volatility: 10 11 10
Volume: 92,761 101,982 96,924
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 6.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 21 periods.
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