Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) sweeps higher after solid labour market report draws bid
The Australian Dollar swept higher against all rivals Thursday after official data showed the Antipodean labour market going from strength-to-strength in October, but some analysts are warning that things might already be about as good as they are likely to get for the Aussie currency.
Australia’s economy created 32.8k new jobs during October, up from 7.8k in September and ahead of the consensus for jobs growth of 19.9k. This pushed the six-month rolling average up from 21.8k in September to 23.5k in October.
Robust jobs growth was enough to keep the unemployment rate stable at 5% during October, despite a 10 basis point increase to 65.6% for the “participation rate”, which lifted the number of individuals who are classed as unemployed.
Both sets of numbers suggest the labour market continued to gather momentum during the recent month. And coming hard on the heels of a wage report that showed Aussie pay growth hitting a three-year high in the third-quarter, market sentiment toward the economy and Australian Dollar has improved this week.
The AUD/USD rate was quoted 0.42% higher at 0.7262 Thursday but still carries a loss of 7% for 2018.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 0.74.
The projected lower bound is: 0.72.
The projected closing price is: 0.73.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 61.5752. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 62.08. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 136 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 100. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 23 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed up 0.006 at 0.729. Volume was 23% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 40% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.723 0.730 0.723 0.729 134,712
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.72 0.72 0.75
Volatility: 9 11 10
Volume: 126,310 113,767 105,478
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 2.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.
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