Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) support on the monthly chart at 0.65

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) support on the monthly chart at 0.65

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) support on the monthly chart at 0.65

The Australian dollar has rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday, showing signs of consolidation just below the crucial 0.68 level which was previous support. At this point I think the market is simply trying to digest the losses and decide whether or not it’s okay to be at this level.

Now that we have sat in this area for a while, I think the market will be comfortable with breaking down. After all, we have broken down through a major support level recently, so this of course means that the market has to be comfortable being the slow. Because of this, I think it’s only a matter of time before we break down.

If we do break down, then we are probably going to be looking towards the bottom of the hammer from last week, and then eventually the crucial 0.65 handle, which is massive support on the monthly chart. Because of this, I think the market is going to try to at least test that area, and it makes for a nice target. This doesn’t mean that we get there right away, but it does give me a longer-term target to aim for on small short positions as I continue to build a core position to the downside.

The alternate scenario of course is that we break above the 0.68 level on a daily close, and if we do it’s likely that we could go as high as 0.69 above there as it is the next major resistance area and it also features the 50 day EMA. All things being equal though I favor the downside.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.69.

The projected upper bound is: 0.69.

The projected lower bound is: 0.67.

The projected closing price is: 0.68.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 30 black candles for a net of 10 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 56.3862. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 39.03. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -54. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 16 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed up 0.003 at 0.678. Volume was 7% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 85% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.675 0.679 0.674 0.678 86,009
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.68 0.69 0.71
Volatility: 9 8 9
Volume: 82,352 71,038 95,250

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 4.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 14 periods.

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