Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Struggling At Major Round Figure

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Struggling At Major Round Figure

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Struggling At Major Round Figure

The Australian dollar had a strong start to the trading session on Wednesday but gave back quite a bit of the gains once we get above the 0.60 level. Ultimately, this is a pair that is highly sensitive to risk appetite and that of course is a major issue to work through. With that being the case, I a bit suspicious about rallies in the Australian dollar, but I also recognize that machines are going to throw this market all over the place.

I do believe that eventually this pair probably continues to see a lot of volatility, but clearly the Australian dollar is something that is to be shorted and not bought. Even if we do break to the upside, I believe that the 0.6250 level is going to be massive resistance as well. In fact, I anticipate that we need to retest the lows again, before something changes. All things being equal, I would anticipate that the Australian dollar will remain on its back foot overall, at least as long as the global economy is somewhat shut down. Furthermore, there is a huge shortage of US dollars, and people will have to come to grips with that. Overall, I like the idea of shorting this pair whenever I get a chance of a breakdown below the bottom of the daily candlestick could be that signal. Whether or not we can break through the 0.55 level underneath might be a completely different question, but if we do then we will almost certainly target the 0.50 level.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.64.

The projected upper bound is: 0.61.

The projected lower bound is: 0.57.

The projected closing price is: 0.59.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 19 white candles and 29 black candles for a net of 10 black candles.

A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 78.2899. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 29.66. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -47. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed down -0.003 at 0.593. Volume was 40% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 327% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.596 0.596 0.587 0.593 36,633
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.59 0.65 0.68
Volatility: 30 19 12
Volume: 109,425 73,316 62,075

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 12.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 52 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that AUD= is currently in an oversold condition.

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