Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) struggles going forward

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) struggles going forward

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) struggles going forward

The Australian dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday, but then rolled over at the 0.72 handle. By doing so, it looks very likely that we are going to continue to see struggles going forward, as the market has seen this area be the beginning of resistance for a while. I think that at this point it’s very likely that we will go looking towards the 200 day EMA though, which means that we will probably go towards the 0.7250 level.

The main reason I see this as a potential trend change is that we have significant support on the monthly chart down to the 0.68 handle, so given enough time I do think that it holds. Historically it always seems to move the market, and the Australian dollar is massively cheap considering longer-term time frames. Beyond that, the Federal Reserve looks very likely to continue to soften its stance.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.72.

The projected upper bound is: 0.72.

The projected lower bound is: 0.70.

The projected closing price is: 0.71.

Candlesticks

A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “high,” it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 5 black candles for a net of 1 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 59.6591. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 44.07. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 43 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -15. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed down -0.007 at 0.709. Volume was 8% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 1% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.716 0.721 0.707 0.709 121,928

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.71 0.71 0.73
Volatility: 8 11 11
Volume: 105,656 105,261 108,519

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 2.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods.

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