Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) struggled to stay above the 0.7250 level

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) struggled to stay above the 0.7250 level

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) struggled to stay above the 0.7250 level

The Australian dollar kicked off the week very positively, breaking towards the 0.73 level. However, by the time the Americans came on board it was already rolling over and showing signs of exhaustion above the 0.7250 level. Because of this, I think it’s only a matter of time before rallies offer selling opportunities, but it seems as if we are magnetically attracted to the 0.7250 level.

That is essentially what I call “fair value” at the time, and it makes sense that we would hang out in this area. However, I think there is one major thing that people are paying attention to when it comes to this pair that will eventually move it rather drastically: the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi of China. That’ll be late in the week, into the weekend so I suspect that this pair might be a bit quiet. However, I favor the downside because of the lack of cooperation that we have seen so far.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.72.

The projected upper bound is: 0.73.

The projected lower bound is: 0.71.

The projected closing price is: 0.72.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 31.8679. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 51.87. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 143 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -18. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed down -0.001 at 0.723. Volume was 11% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 2% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.723 0.728 0.722 0.723 98,725

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.73 0.72 0.74
Volatility: 11 10 10
Volume: 123,676 117,796 105,772

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 2.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into AUD= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 14 periods.

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