Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Still At Risk Of Falling As Buyers Remain Side-Lined

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Still At Risk Of Falling As Buyers Remain Side-Lined

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Still At Risk Of Falling As Buyers Remain Side-Lined

The AUD/USD pair had a relatively quiet day, ending it unchanged around 0.5790. The pair seesawed within familiar levels trapped between the usual dollar’s demand, and resurgent gold prices. The bright metal soared to $1,561.21 a troy ounce, limiting the downside for the Aussie. During the upcoming Asian session, the country will unveil the preliminary estimates of the March  Commonwealth Bank’s PMI. Services activity and Manufacturing output are both seen contracting just modestly when compared to February’s final figures.

AUD/USD short-term technical outlook

The bearish potential of the AUD/USD pair has eased, but the risk seems still skewed to the downside. In the 4-hour chart, the pair is struggling around a bearish 20 SMA, which continues to head south below the larger ones. The Momentum indicator has eased from daily highs and is challenging its mid-line, while the RSI consolidates around 43, reflecting the absence of buyers.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.64.

The projected upper bound is: 0.61.

The projected lower bound is: 0.57.

The projected closing price is: 0.59.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 19 white candles and 29 black candles for a net of 10 black candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 51.2494. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 25.87. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 15 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -72. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed up 0.007 at 0.590. Volume was 74% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 368% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.583 0.590 0.581 0.590 15,581
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.60 0.66 0.68
Volatility: 33 18 11
Volume: 105,099 70,316 61,657

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX AUD= is currently 13.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of AUD= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 50 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that AUD= is currently in an oversold condition.

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