Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) stays above key 70 level, but barely
The Australian dollar had an uneventful week, as AUD/USD continues to hover just above the round number of 70. There are only three events in the upcoming week.Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
The RBA held the benchmark rate at 1.50%, as expected. GDP for Q4 disappointed, as the gain of 0.2% was the lowest since 2016. Retail sales posted a weak gain of 0.1%, shy of the estimate of 0.3%. In the U.S., nonfarm payrolls plunged to 20 thousand, much worse than the forecast of 180 thousand. There was better news from wage growth, which gained 0.4%, above the estimate of 0.3%.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.71.
The projected upper bound is: 0.72.
The projected lower bound is: 0.69.
The projected closing price is: 0.70.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 18.1819. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 41.56. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 54 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -124.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed up 0.003 at 0.705. Volume was 8% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 27% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.701 0.705 0.700 0.705 102,001
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.71 0.71 0.72
Volatility: 8 11 11
Volume: 104,777 104,709 108,298
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 2.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 17 periods.
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