Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) starts week with losses
Aud/Usd has posted considerable losses in the Monday session. In North American trade, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6963, up 0.54% on the day. On the release front, there are no major U.S. events. The sole event is JOLTS Job Openings, which is expected to tick up to 7.50 million. Australia releases NAB Business Confidence, which has posted a flat zero for two straight months. On Tuesday, the U.S. releases Producer Price Index reports, while Australia posts Westpac Consumer Sentiment.
It was a rough week for the U.S. dollar, and the Aussie took full advantage, with gains of close to 1.0%. The U.S. economy continues to perform well, but nonfarm payrolls posted its second dismal reading in four months. In May, the economy created only 75 thousand jobs, down from 263 thousand a month earlier. Wage growth was unchanged at 0.2%, shy of the estimate of 0.3%. Despite these soft job numbers, the U.S. labor market is in strong shape, and the greenback could quickly bounce back.
The Federal Reserve also weighed on the greenback, with Fed chair Jerome Powell hinting that the Fed could lower rates later this year. The Fed has sounded neutral about its next rate move, but last week’s comments from Powell and FOMC member James Bullard were clear hints that the Fed is leaning to a rate cut. The CME Group has set the odds of a quarter-point cut in July at 67%, as the likelihood a rate cut later this year is growing.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 0.70.
The projected lower bound is: 0.69.
The projected closing price is: 0.70.
A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “high,” it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 5 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 58.4231. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 49.07. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 15 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 79. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed down -0.004 at 0.696. Volume was 22% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 21% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.700 0.702 0.695 0.696 74,738
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.70 0.70 0.71
Volatility: 6 7 10
Volume: 92,036 91,140 104,941
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 2.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.
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