Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) starts the week in bullish fashion

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) starts the week in bullish fashion

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) starts the week in bullish fashion

AUD/USD is kicking off the week with a sharp move higher, despite a poor retail sales number overnight. The drop below $0.7238 and $0.7202 last week points towards the wider bearish picture remaining in play.

However, given the size of the drop last week, it looks like we could be set for a retracement phase from here. With the price rebounding from very close proximity to the $0.7160 historical low from January 2017, this adds credence to the idea that we will see further upside for the short term. As such, watch for further upside for now. Although, for the most part this looks like a retracement rather than a bullish reversal. Thus, a bearish outlook remains unless we see a break above $0.7362.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.74.

The projected upper bound is: 0.73.

The projected lower bound is: 0.71.

The projected closing price is: 0.72.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 17.9336. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 39.29. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 83 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -143.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed up 0.002 at 0.721. Volume was 19% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 9% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.719 0.722 0.716 0.721 83,700

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.73 0.74 0.76
Volatility: 14 11 10
Volume: 107,276 104,457 96,909

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 5.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 15 periods.

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