Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) stand to come under pressure if market sentiment falters in response to US-China trade talks

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) stand to come under pressure if market sentiment falters in response to US-China trade talks

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) stand to come under pressure if market sentiment falters in response to US-China trade talks

US-China trade relations have been at a standstill since mid-September when it seemed Sino-American tensions were thawing amid “gestures of good will” from both parties. With a lack of adverse updates on the trade war between Washington and Beijing, risk assets like equities and the Australian Dollar have remained largely afloat. That could soon change, however, with US-China trade talks set to resume this week and headlines already pointing to a rise in friction between the two economic powerhouses.

Considering the heavy reliance Australia’s economy places on China, Australian Dollar price action is closely tied to the Chinese economy and the Yuan. As such, there is a strong observable relationship between AUDUSD, AUDJPY and the renminbi. Consequently, Australian Dollar outlook over the short and medium terms stands to be impacted materially by upcoming US-China trade talks.

AUDUSD remains long-bogged down and spot price action could be pointing to further weakness in the Australian Dollar ahead. A modest rebound in spot AUDUSD off multi-year lows was thwarted when the currency pair touched the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of its recent bearish leg beginning mid-July. The 0.6770 has previously served as a major area of confluence that will look to keep Australian Dollar upside at bay going forward.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.68.

The projected upper bound is: 0.68.

The projected lower bound is: 0.66.

The projected closing price is: 0.67.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 5 black candles.

A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 51.9162. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 41.48. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 44 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -71. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 13 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed down -0.000 at 0.673. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 6% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.673 0.673 0.673 0.673 140
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.67 0.68 0.70
Volatility: 7 7 8
Volume: 54,895 69,329 85,657

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 3.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of AUD= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods.

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