Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Slides after Mixed Jobs Report
AUD/USD recorded sharp losses last week, with a decline of 1.7%. It was the Aussie’s worst week since mid-July. There are only two events in the upcoming week. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
The Australian dollar continued to post gains last week, despite disappointing confidence numbers. NAB business confidence slowed to 1 point, in August marking a 4-month low. There was no relief from Westpac consumer sentiment, which fell by 1.7% in July, its third decline in the past four months.
The RBA minutes indicated that policymakers have left the door open to further rate cuts if needed. This could mean another 1/4 point cut in October or November. Australia created a respectable 34.7 thousand jobs in August, but investors chose to focus on the unemployment rate, which rose unexpectedly to 5.3%, up from 5.2% in the previous release.
In the U.S., the Federal Reserve lowered rates by 25 basis points for the second time in two months. Lower rates usually means a dovish message from the Fed but this time the Fed sounded cautiously optimistic. The Fed chair stated that domestic economic conditions were “favorable” and that the rate cut was an insurance policy in case economic conditions worsened.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
The projected upper bound is: 0.68.
The projected lower bound is: 0.67.
The projected closing price is: 0.68.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 5 black candles for a net of 1 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 19 white candles and 30 black candles for a net of 11 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 9.6318. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 40.30. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 32 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -134.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed unchanged at 0.677. Volume was 97% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 9% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.676 0.678 0.676 0.677 1,926
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.68 0.68 0.70
Volatility: 5 7 9
Volume: 59,919 67,544 87,968
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 3.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 11 periods.
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