Home FX AUD Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) sentiment is still negative

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) sentiment is still negative

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Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) sentiment is still negative

AUD/USD has been quite trendy in recent weeks as global trade tensions increase and risk assets such as the Aussie keep tumbling. Although, we saw a reversal higher towards the end of last week after the soft US manufacturing and services reports. But the sentiment is still negative and forex traders don’t want to keep buying the AUD, so the price action this week has been mostly sideways.

AUD/USD has traded in a range all week and the range is between two moving averages as we can see from the H4 chart above. At the bottom of the range we have the 50 SMA (yellow), which has provided resistance in previous weeks when this pair was sliding lower, and now it has turned into support.

At the top, we have the 100 SMA (green) which has been providing resistance all week and the price is still trading around there now. The stochastic indicator is overbought which means that this latest bullish move might be over soon, but the risk tones this morning are slightly positive as we can observe from the climb in USD/JPY or the stock market, so there might be a break higher as well. Although, that will be short lived since markets have priced in a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia next week.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.70.

The projected upper bound is: 0.70.

The projected lower bound is: 0.68.

The projected closing price is: 0.69.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 29 black candles for a net of 9 black candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 56.7419. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 38.96. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 5. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed down -0.000 at 0.691. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 12% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.691 0.691 0.691 0.691 1,347

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.69 0.70 0.71
Volatility: 5 7 10
Volume: 77,529 90,134 104,872

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 3.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 26 periods.

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