Home FX AUD Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Sellers may come back

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Sellers may come back


Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Sellers may come back

Last week, US Dollar softened slightly against Australian and New Zealand Dollars. On Friday, AUD/USD closed in the green with a 0.3% gain. Meanwhile, NZD/USD closed with nearly 0.4% gain. However, since Monday sellers resumed pressing the price to the downside, hinting to a possible continuation of bearish price action.

The relative Strength Index (RSI) crossed below (50) on both pairs indicating to the end of buyer’s domination.

Looking at the daily chart, we notice on Thursday AUD/USD rallied to a higher trading zone 0.6744- 0.6826. However, at the start of this week, the price declined eyeing a test of the low end of the zone.

Hence, a close below the low end could send AUDUSD towards 0.6631. Although, the Oct 2 low at 0.6671 should be monitored. Further close below this level may cause more bearishness towards 0.6594 then 0.6479 contingent on clearing the yearly support level underlined on the chart (zoomed in).

Having said that, any close above 0.6826 may increase the likelihood of testing the double bottom neckline located at 0.6894 . Although, the weekly resistance area marked on the chart would be worth monitoring.

If AUDUSD breaks and remains above the neckline, this could push the price towards 0.7000 handle and possibly above. However, the weekly resistance levels underscored on the chart should be kept in focus.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 0.68.

The projected lower bound is: 0.67.

The projected closing price is: 0.68.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 3 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 62.7831. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 47.14. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 48 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 54. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed down -0.002 at 0.675. Volume was 12% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 41% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.677 0.679 0.674 0.675 60,408
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.67 0.68 0.70
Volatility: 7 7 8
Volume: 58,196 69,075 84,785

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX AUD= is currently 3.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of AUD= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 11 periods.

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