Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) risks a visit of 0.7300

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) risks a visit of 0.7300

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) risks a visit of 0.7300

The Aussie Dollar could slip back to the 0.7300 handle in the next weeks.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: “While we expected a lower AUD yesterday, the rapid decline that took out the strong 0.7380 support was not exactly anticipated. The pressure is still clearly on the downside but oversold conditions suggest a slower pace of decline and any weakness could be limited to the next support at 0.7330 (0.7350 is already quite a strong support). Resistance is at 0.7390 followed by 0.7415. The latter level is acting as a very strong resistance level now and at this stage, is expected to be strong enough to cap any intraday rebound”.

Next 1-3 weeks: “We highlighted yesterday that the “upward pressure has eased” and AUD has likely moved into a consolidation phase. The subsequent outsized decline that hit an overnight low of 0.7364 came as a surprise. This level is just above our expected 0.7350/0.7480 consolidation range and in view of the rapid pace of decline; a move below 0.7350 would not be surprising.

That said, we are not convinced that the current weakness is the start of a fresh bearish phase even though the current soft patch could extend lower and test the major 0.7300 support. On the upside, only a move above 0.7440 would indicate that the current weakness has stabilized”

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 0.75.

The projected lower bound is: 0.73.

The projected closing price is: 0.74.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 29 black candles for a net of 8 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 27.4407. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.39. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 47 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 35. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed unchanged at 0.741. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 46% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.741 0.741 0.740 0.741 67

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.74 0.75 0.77
Volatility: 11 10 9
Volume: 92,519 100,664 90,510

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 3.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of AUD= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 18 periods.

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