Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) remains tilted to the downside as the flash-crash rebound stalls
Australia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may produce a bearish reaction in AUD/USD as the growth rate is expected to increase 2.6% after expanding 2.8% per annum during the three-months through September.
Evidence of a slowing economy may push the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to alter the forward-guidance for monetary policy as Governor Philip Lowe warns that ‘there were significant uncertainties around the forecasts, with scenarios where an increase in the cash rate would be appropriate at some point and other scenarios where a decrease in the cash rate would be appropriate.’ In turn, another below-forecast GDP print may drag on AUD/USD as it encourages the RBA to further support the economy, with the exchange rate at riskexhibiting a more bearish behavior over the coming days as it trades near the February-low (0.7054).
However, a positive development may heighten the appeal of the Australian dollar as it puts pressure on Governor Lowe & Co. to lift the official cash rate (OCR) off of the record-low, and an above-forecast GDP may spur a rebound in the exchange rate as it sparks bets for an RBA rate-hike.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
The projected upper bound is: 0.72.
The projected lower bound is: 0.69.
The projected closing price is: 0.70.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 15.2912. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 39.08. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 52 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -174.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed down -0.004 at 0.704. Volume was 63% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 39% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.708 0.709 0.703 0.704 40,615
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.71 0.71 0.72
Volatility: 10 11 11
Volume: 102,399 104,548 108,168
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 2.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 15 periods.