Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) remains range-bound, dull and directionless
Not even the release of US non-farm payrolls data for March could wake the Aussie dollar from its slumber on Friday, initially rising in the wake of the report before giving back ground towards the close.
“March US payrolls growth beat expectations, but market reaction was muted both for the US dollar and Treasuries,” said Shayne ‘Jack’ Heffernan.
Payrolls increased by 196,000, above the 177,000 level expected, leaving the unemployment rate steady at 3.8%. However, hourly wages growth undershot forecasts for an increase of 0.3%, lifting by just 0.1% from a month earlier.
Despite the wages undershoot, the US dollar regained its poise late in the session, seeing the AUD/USD fall back to close at .7105.
“The AUD did drift lower on Friday after payrolls, the USD getting something of a bid tone despite the further rally in stocks, a lower VIX and non-threatening US average earnings growth,” de Garis said.
Even with investor risk appetite now far stronger than earlier in the year, and despite firmer commodity prices, the Aussie dollar remains stuck in a thin trading range, largely due to widespread expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates later in the year.
Pointing to another quiet session to begin the week, there’s little on the economic or events calendar on Monday that appears likely to shake the Aussie dollar from its slumber.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 0.72.
The projected lower bound is: 0.70.
The projected closing price is: 0.71.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 3 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 68.9798. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 15 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 50.45. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 75 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -18. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 16 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed down -0.000 at 0.710. Volume was 67% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 69% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.709 0.711 0.709 0.710 34,832
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.71 0.71 0.72
Volatility: 7 9 10
Volume: 95,930 101,111 107,909
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 1.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 9 periods.
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