Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) releases AIG Construction Index and Home Loans

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) releases AIG Construction Index and Home Loans

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) releases AIG Construction Index and Home Loans

AUD/USD has posted slight gains in the Thursday session, erasing most of the losses seen on Wednesday. In North American trade, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6985, up 0.23% on the day. In Australia, the trade surplus narrowed to A$4.87 billion in April, down from A$4.95 billion a month earlier. This missed the forecast of A$5.05 billion. Later in the day, Australia releases AIG Construction Index and Home Loans. In the U.S., unemployment claims rose to 218 thousand, above the estimate of 215 thousand. On Friday, the U.S. releases nonfarm payrolls and wage growth.

Australia’s trade surplus missed expectations, as the global trade war has taken a bite out of the country’s key export sector. The slowdown in China has translated into economic pain for Australia, as the Asian giant is Australia’s number one trading partner. Growth in Q1 was just 1.8% on an annualized basis, far lower than the long-term average of 3.5%. The RBA has finally stepped in with a rate cut, but will there be more pain before gain? The bank lowered rates from 1.50% to 1.25%, marking the first time the RBA has cut rates since August 2016. If key economic indicators continue to struggle, we could see another rate cut in the second half of the year.

Is the Federal Reserve on its way to lowering rates for the first time in 2019? Since raising rates back in December, the Federal Reserve has sounded neutral with regard to rate movement. However, the Fed made a dramatic U-turn this week, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinting at a rate cut. On Tuesday, Powell said that the Fed would “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion”. It was also noteworthy that Powell did not mention his “patient” approach to monetary policy, which has been a buzzword in his recent comments. Earlier in the week, St. Louis Fed president James Bullard also discussed the need to lower rates in order to stabilize the economy. Bullard said that the Fed might have to cut rates due to low inflation and the ongoing trade war with China.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 0.71.

The projected lower bound is: 0.69.

The projected closing price is: 0.70.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 5 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 74.6953. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 52.50. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 13 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 122.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed up 0.001 at 0.698. Volume was 5% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 22% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.697 0.699 0.696 0.698 91,913

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.69 0.70 0.71
Volatility: 5 7 10
Volume: 92,197 92,257 105,195

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 2.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 0 periods.

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