Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) recovery seen in the Aussie dollar
After plunging to as low as .6730 on Thursday, the lowest level since early 2009, the AUD/USD surged on Friday, helped by a raft of positive headlines that sparked short-covering from traders.
“If ever there was a case of a currency going from zero to hero in the space of 24 hours, it was the Australian dollar between Thursday and Friday,” said Ray Attrill, Head of FX Strategy at the National Australia Bank.
“The AUD/USD was Friday’s best performing currency by far, adding 1.5% to close above 0.71 for the first time since 20th December.”
After initially finding support on news that trade negotiations between the US and China would resume this week and stronger-then-expected PMI data from China earlier in the session, the Aussie’s rally went up a gear in European and North American trade, helped by further monetary policy easing from the People’s Bank of China and dovish remarks from US Fed Chair Jerome Powell towards the outlook for US monetary policy settings in the months ahead.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.72.
The projected upper bound is: 0.73.
The projected lower bound is: 0.70.
The projected closing price is: 0.71.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 1 white candles.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 92.3111. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 52.90. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 154.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed up 0.003 at 0.714. Volume was 21% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 13% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.711 0.715 0.711 0.714 89,431
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.71 0.72 0.73
Volatility: 12 12 10
Volume: 96,269 116,393 106,881
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 2.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 19 periods.
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