Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) records lower than expected November trade surplus of $1.9 billion

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) records lower than expected November trade surplus of $1.9 billion

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) records lower than expected November trade surplus of $1.9 billion

The Australian Bureau of Statistics figures reveal Australia’s November trade surplus of $1.9 billion was lower than expected.Australia exported $1.9 billion more than last month, down from a $2 billion surplus in October.

According to ABS figures, in trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $2.59 million in November, down $7million from October.

ABS figures showed goods and services credits rose 1% to $38.45 million. Non-monetary gold rose 60% to $681 million.While non-rural goods fell $173 million, net exports of goods under merchanting remained at $37million.

IG market analyst, Kyle Rodda said markets haven’t been significantly affected by the figures.

‘Trade balance missed expectations slightly, but still showed a solid-trade surplus. The markets weren’t too focused on the figures leading into the event.’ Mr. Rodda said.

ABS figures showed goods and services debits rose 2% to $36.520 million, while capital goods rose 7 % to $433 million.

Consumption goods rose $202 million, and non-monetary gold rose 9% to $30 million.
Intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $22 million and other services debits fell $22 million.

Australian dollar unaffected

The AUD/USD traded between $0.7140 and $0.7150 upon the news on Tuesday, remaining unaffected by weaker than expected figures.

Mr. Rodda said: ‘The Australian dollar hasn’t wavered a great deal, but it has sold off slightly after the release based on the miss to forecasts.’

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.72.

The projected upper bound is: 0.73.

The projected lower bound is: 0.70.

The projected closing price is: 0.71.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.

A hammer occurred (a hammer has a long lower shadow and closes near the high). Hammers must appear after a significant decline or when prices are oversold to be valid. When this occurs, it usually indicates the formation of a support level and is thus considered a bullish pattern.

A hanging man occurred (a hanging man has a very long lower shadow and a small real body). This pattern can be bullish or bearish, depending on the trend. If it occurs during an uptrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX AUD=) it is called a hanging man line and signifies a reversal top. If it occurs during a downtrend it is called a bullish hammer.

A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 97.9942. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 52.57. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 154.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed down -0.001 at 0.714. Volume was 20% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 8% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.715 0.715 0.711 0.714 90,550

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.71 0.72 0.73
Volatility: 12 12 10
Volume: 101,981 115,947 106,908

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX AUD= is currently 2.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 20 periods.

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