Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) rebounds off confluence support ahead of FOMC

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) rebounds off confluence support ahead of FOMC

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) rebounds off confluence support ahead of FOMC

The Australian Dollar is virtually unchanged against the US Dollar since the start of the week and heading into tomorrow FOMC interest rate decision, the focus is on a break of the objective weekly opening-range for guidance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD price chart. 

Technical Outlook

In my last Australian Dollar Price Outlook we noted that AUD/USD was vulnerable on the back of a 2.6% advance off the yearly lows with, “initial support at 6827/32 backed by 6803 – both levels of interest for possible downside exhaustion / long-entries IF reached.” Price registered a low today at 6830 before rebounding sharply – so was that it?

Its too early to tell, but with the FOMC on tap tomorrow, we’re look for clarity here. A topside breach above the high-close at 6880 would put Aussie back in play targeting 6911 and confluence resistance at the median-line / 61.8% retracement at 6927. Key daily support now 6791 with broader bullish invalidation at 6760/66.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 0.69.

The projected lower bound is: 0.68.

The projected closing price is: 0.69.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 6 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 56.8181. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 59.32. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 28 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 51. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 22 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed up 0.000 at 0.687. Volume was 4% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 11% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.686 0.687 0.683 0.687 71,838
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.69 0.68 0.70
Volatility: 4 8 9
Volume: 69,055 67,714 89,254

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 2.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods.

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