Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) rebound following the currency market flash-crash has been capped by the 200-Day SMA (0.7127)

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) rebound following the currency market flash-crash has been capped by the 200-Day SMA (0.7127)

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) rebound following the currency market flash-crash has been capped by the 200-Day SMA (0.7127)

  • Keep in mind, the AUD/USD rebound following the currency market flash-crash has been capped by the 200-Day SMA (0.7127), with the exchange rate marking another failed attempt to break/close above the moving average in April.
  • In turn, AUD/USD remains at risk of giving back the rebound from the 2019-low (0.6745) as the wedge/triangle formation in both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) unravels.
  • However, the failed attempts to break/close below the Fibonacci overlap around 0.6850 (78.6% expansion) to 0.6880 (23.6% retracement) raises the risk for a larger rebound especially as the RSI bounces back from oversold territory.
  • The move back above the 0.6950 (61.8% expansion) to 0.6960 (38.2% retracement) region brings the 0.7020 (50% retracement) pivot on the radar, with the next area of interest coming in around 0.7080 (61.8% retracement) to 0.7110 (78.6% retracement).
  • Need a break/close below the 0.6850 (78.6% expansion) to 0.6880 (23.6% retracement) region to bring the downside targets back on the radar, with the next hurdle coming in around 0.6730 (100% expansion).

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 0.71.

The projected lower bound is: 0.69.

The projected closing price is: 0.70.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 7 black candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 90.4762. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 54.27. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 211.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed up 0.001 at 0.698. Volume was 35% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 19% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.697 0.699 0.696 0.698 62,656

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.69 0.70 0.71
Volatility: 4 8 10
Volume: 85,598 91,977 105,144

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 2.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 28 periods.

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