Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) rebound fails to hold
AUD/USD managed to rebound overnight, following an impressive set of gross domestic product (GDP) numbers.
However, the trend is clearly defined here, and we immediately saw the pair turn lower from the 76.4% retracement. With the price breaking below the $0.7157 level, this would have been a successful selling opportunity at the Fibonacci. From here, we are likely to continue downwards, with a bearish short-term outlook remaining in play as long as we do not break above the overnight high of $0.7127.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.74.
The projected upper bound is: 0.73.
The projected lower bound is: 0.71.
The projected closing price is: 0.72.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 24.2363. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 38.58. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 86 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -97. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed up 0.000 at 0.719. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 4% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.719 0.719 0.719 0.719 986
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.73 0.74 0.76
Volatility: 11 11 10
Volume: 94,494 102,128 96,675
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 5.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 18 periods.