Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) RBA remains busy, as policymakers lowered rates for the third time since June
The RBA remains busy, as policymakers lowered rates for the third time since June. The Aussie lost ground after the move, but recovered late in the week. Building Approvals declined 1.1%, marking a third successive decline. Retail sales bounced back with a gain of 0.4%, shy of the estimate of 0.5%.
U.S. numbers continue to point to a slowdown in the economy. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for September pointed to contraction for a second straight month. The Services PMI pointed to expansion, but slipped to 52.6, its lowest reading since August 2016. Employment data also disappointed. Nonfarm payrolls came in at 136 thousand, shy of the forecast of 145 thousand. Wage growth fell to 0.0%, down from 0.4% a month earlier. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, its lowest rate since 1969.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.68.
The projected upper bound is: 0.68.
The projected lower bound is: 0.67.
The projected closing price is: 0.68.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 5 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 62.8398. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 47.74. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 41 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -21. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed up 0.003 at 0.677. Volume was 15% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 12% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.674 0.677 0.674 0.677 60,740
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.67 0.68 0.70
Volatility: 8 7 9
Volume: 62,367 69,908 86,176
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 3.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.
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