Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) RBA minutes in the spotlight

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) RBA minutes in the spotlight

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) RBA minutes in the spotlight

Australian key indicators were impressive last week, but it wasn’t enough to push the Aussie higher. The business and consumer sectors both showed higher confidence levels. The NAB Business Confidence improved to 4 in July, up from 2 in the previous release. The Westpac Consumer Sentiment jumped 3.6% in August, its highest gain since February. Wage growth hit 0.6% in June, above the forecast of 0.5%. The week ended with a sparkling employment report, as the economy created 41.1 thousand in July, after a negligible gain of

In the U.S., there was positive news from consumer inflation and spending numbers. CPI climbed 0.3% in July, matching the forecast. Core CPI remained steady at 0.3%, beating the forecast of 0.2%. Retail sales rose 0.7%, easily beating the estimate of 0.4%. Core retail sales sparkled with a gain of 1.0%, its best showing since March. On the manufacturing front, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index slowed to 16.8, but still beat the estimate of 10.1.

President Trump announced a delay on new U.S. tariffs against China, which were set to take effect on September 1. Although the delay is welcome news, a trade agreement between the two countries remains elusive, and further tensions seem likely.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.69.

The projected upper bound is: 0.69.

The projected lower bound is: 0.67.

The projected closing price is: 0.68.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 29 black candles for a net of 8 black candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 58.4312. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 41.99. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 23. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed up 0.001 at 0.679. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 43% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.678 0.680 0.678 0.679 427
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.68 0.69 0.71
Volatility: 9 8 9
Volume: 75,207 69,578 94,428

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 3.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 16 periods. Our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period high while the security price has not. This is a bullish divergence.

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