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Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) RBA is expected to cut rates for a third time this year

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Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) RBA is expected to cut rates for a third time this year

The RBA will kick off the fourth quarter of the year with its October interest rate decision slated for Tuesday at 4:30 GMT and brings Australian Dollar currency pairs into focus. The previous RBA monetary policy statement noted that “it is reasonable to expect that an extended period of low interest rates will be required in Australia to make progress in reducing unemployment and achieve more assured progress towards the inflation target.”

Subsequently, there was a sharp uptick in RBA rate cut expectations about two weeks ago in response to uninspiring Australian employment data, which detailed an uptick in the unemployment rate to 5.3% despite a rosier reading on the headline change in employment figure. Traders are currently pricing a 79.6% probability that the October RBA meeting reveals another 25-basis point cut to the central bank’s overnight cash rate (OCR) according to overnight swaps data pulled from Bloomberg.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.68.

The projected upper bound is: 0.68.

The projected lower bound is: 0.67.

The projected closing price is: 0.67.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 3 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 29 black candles for a net of 9 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 25.5923. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 40.33. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 37 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -88. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed down -0.002 at 0.675. Volume was 21% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 8% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.677 0.677 0.674 0.675 57,618
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.68 0.68 0.70
Volatility: 7 7 8
Volume: 65,301 68,811 86,929

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 3.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 0 periods.

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