Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) RBA in Focus

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) RBA in Focus

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) RBA in Focus

The AUD/USD is back in focus this week, thanks to the RBA interest rate decision. We’ve seen some relatively strong data over the course of the last seven days. That might lead to a more buoyant mood, however, there is little chance that we’ll be seeing an interest rate hike.

The Australian dollar operated in a thin trading range on Thursday, recovering from earlier losses to close modestly in the black.

Here’s the scoreboard as at 7.45am AEST.

AUD/USD 0.7375 , -0.0004 , -0.05%
AUD/JPY 81.03 , -0.12 , -0.15%
AUD/CNH 4.7920 , -0.0036 , -0.08%
AUD/EUR 0.6353 , -0.0005 , -0.08%
AUD/GBP 0.5565 , -0.0002 , -0.04%
AUD/NZD 1.0740 , 0.0021 , 0.20%
AUD/CAD 0.9818 , -0.0007 , -0.07%

And here’s a AUD/USD hourly chart, showing the recent stabilisation in the Aussie after falling in the prior five sessions.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 0.75.

The projected lower bound is: 0.73.

The projected closing price is: 0.74.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 34.4087. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 17 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 48.51. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 62 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -64. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 22 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed up 0.004 at 0.740. Volume was 4% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 49% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.736 0.741 0.734 0.740 96,361

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.74 0.75 0.77
Volatility: 10 11 9
Volume: 101,711 102,821 93,504

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX AUD= is currently 3.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 5 periods.

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