Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) RBA extended its record-breaking run

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) RBA extended its record-breaking run

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) RBA extended its record-breaking run

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars are trading higher on Tuesday, following the release of the RBA Rate Statement. At 0349 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7369, up 0.0011 or +0.15% and the NZD/USD is at .6961, up 0.0032 or +0.45%.

The Reserve Bank of Australia extended its record-breaking run of inaction on rates, keeping the official cash rate on hold for a 28th consecutive month. Following its December meeting on Tuesday, the RBA kept the official cash rate at 1.5 percent. Economists expect the central bank to keep the cash rate on hold at 1.5 percent until at least the fourth quarter of 2019, according to Bloomberg survey.

In other news, the Australian Current Account came in at -10.7 Billion, worse than the -10.2 Billion forecast. The previous month was revised better to -12.1 Billion.

Later on Tuesday, in New Zealand, traders will get the opportunity to react to the latest GDT Price Index. In the U.S., FOMC Member William speaks and the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism report will be released.

Early Wednesday, Australia will release its latest data on quarterly GDP.

The upside momentum in the NZD/USD is likely to continue until the euphoria from the US-China trade dispute wears off. Or until the doubts expressed over whether the negotiations will bear fruit encourages long investors to start booking profits.

In AUD/USD we could see a labored rally or a sideways trade due to the uncertainty over Wednesday’s quarterly GDP report. It is expected to come in 0.6% higher, below the previously reported 0.9%.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.72.

The projected upper bound is: 0.75.

The projected lower bound is: 0.72.

The projected closing price is: 0.73.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 76.8787. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 61.41. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 149 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 127.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed down -0.001 at 0.734. Volume was 4% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 18% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.736 0.739 0.732 0.734 106,820

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.73 0.72 0.74
Volatility: 8 11 10
Volume: 117,584 118,830 106,090

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 1.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 20 periods.

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