Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) RBA adopted a neutral bias on the outlook for Australia’s cash rate
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered a sledgehammer to the Australian dollar on Wednesday, leaving it on track to log its largest percentage decline in over two years.
The damage can be seen in the scoreboard below as at 8am in Sydney.
AUD/USD 0.7115 , -0.0119 , -1.65%
AUD/JPY 78.22 , -1.33 , -1.67%
AUD/CNH 4.8213 , -0.07 , -1.43%
AUD/EUR 0.6258 , -0.0078 , -1.23%
AUD/GBP 0.5500 , -0.0088 , -1.57%
AUD/NZD 1.0416 , -0.0074 , -0.71%
AUD/CAD 0.9398 , -0.0097 , -1.02%
Clearly, the Aussie has been hosed across the board, especially against the greenback with the AUD/USD falling to the lowest level since January 25.
At .1.65%, the AUD/USD is currently on track to record its largest one-day percentage decline since November 2016.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.72.
The projected upper bound is: 0.72.
The projected lower bound is: 0.70.
The projected closing price is: 0.71.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 5 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 19.6298. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 42.98. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 33 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -108.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed unchanged at 0.710. Volume was 18% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 21% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.711 0.712 0.709 0.710 93,697
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.72 0.72 0.73
Volatility: 16 11 11
Volume: 102,926 108,474 108,115
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 2.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 19 periods. our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period low while the security price has not. This is a bearish divergence.
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