The Australian Dollar to US Dollar (AUD/USD) exchange rate has risen today following a surprise increase in Australian business confidence.
The unexpected rise for NAB’s July business confidence reading has pushed the AUD/USD exchange rate to an interbank level of $0.72.
The NAB data release wasn’t entirely positive, however, and with risk aversion still rife the Australian Dollar’s gains were limited.
The rally seen earlier in the week for AUD/USD is now a distant memory, as the downtrend line from the January highs returns with a vengeance.
Below $0.7310, the next big area of support is the December 2016 low down at $0.7160. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $0.7433 has acted to contain any rally over the past month, so a move above this and then above $0.7473 would be the conditions needed to suggest that the buyers have managed to reassert control. Rallies back towards $0.74 that fail to move higher likely remain selling opportunities.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.75.
The projected upper bound is: 0.74.
The projected lower bound is: 0.71.
The projected closing price is: 0.72.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 9.5522. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 25 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 34.57. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 70 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -155.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed down -0.000 at 0.724. Volume was 95% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 6% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.724 0.724 0.724 0.724 4,611
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.73 0.74 0.76
Volatility: 9 10 9
Volume: 89,338 99,685 94,234
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 5.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.
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