Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Rallies Significantly Into Resistance
The 0.62 level above is an area that should be resistive due to a large, round, psychologically significant figure being represented and several attempts to break above it. At this point, I think that a pullback makes quite a bit of sense, as we are simply going to consolidate. Having said that, if the market was to break above the 0.62 handle, it’s likely that the market could go towards the 0.63 level, possibly even the 0.65 level.
The size of the candlestick is rather impressive, and the fact that we have rallied certainly is a bit interesting as well. Ultimately, the Australian dollar is a “risk on” currency, and therefore it’s likely that the currency will move with whatever the latest sentiment is when it comes to the coronavirus. That being said, a break above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level which is just above the 0.62 handle could open the doors to acceleration. All things being equal, this is a market that continues to go back and forth based upon the most recent headlines and of course the “flavor of the day.”
If we did turn around and breakdown below the 0.60 level on some type of massive pull back, then it’s likely that the market goes down to the 0.58 level. All things being equal, we are still within the overall range that the market has been in for the last couple of weeks, as we continue to try to figure out where we are getting ready to go next. Wait for the impulsive candlestick to break out of this 200 point range before putting money to work.
Technical Indicators
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
The projected upper bound is: 0.63.
The projected lower bound is: 0.59.
The projected closing price is: 0.61.
Candlesticks
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.
Momentum Indicators
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
Stochastic Oscillator
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 65.9452. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 47.16. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 78. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.
MACD
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed down -0.003 at 0.614. Volume was 70% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 49% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.617 0.618 0.612 0.614 20,789
Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.61 0.64 0.67
Volatility: 21 21 13
Volume: 122,123 87,473 64,446
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
Summary
FOREX AUD= is currently 8.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 61 periods.
