Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) rallies into the resistance

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) rallies into the resistance

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) rallies into the resistance

The Australian dollar has rallied again during the trading session on Wednesday, reaching towards the 0.6750 level, an area that should continue to offer a bit of resistance as it has been rather stringent over the last couple of days. Remember, the Australian dollar is highly sensitive to the Chinese economy in all things China related. With that being the case, we will be paying attention to the coronavirus headlines but right now it is still a bit early to get overly excited about it. The number of cases is starting to decelerate, which is the first sign of positivity. However, we are still a long way from normalcy.

At this point, the market is very likely to see a significant break out if we can clear the 0.6775 handle, as it could open up the door to the 50 day EMA. That being said, it could very well happen on the right headlines. However, if we rollover from here it’s probably going to be more consolidation going forward. We are at lows not seen since the financial crisis, so certainly there are going to be significant value hunters out there trying to take a look at the Aussie dollar for a longer-term trade. However, retail traders don’t have the luxury of hanging on to a position for several years most of the time, at least not a position that has any significant size. At this point, I anticipate a bit of consolidation, but I do have my eye on that level above as a potential buying opportunity. If the market breaks to a fresh, new low, the bottom of the financial crisis consolidation is near the 0.63 level.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.68.

The projected upper bound is: 0.68.

The projected lower bound is: 0.67.

The projected closing price is: 0.67.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 3 black candles.

A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 68.1249. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 41.89. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 28. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed down -0.000 at 0.674. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 31% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.674 0.674 0.673 0.674 898
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.67 0.68 0.69
Volatility: 8 8 7
Volume: 50,178 48,019 62,239

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 1.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of AUD= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 22 periods.

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