Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Rallies After Surprise Employment Figure

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Rallies After Surprise Employment Figure

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Rallies After Surprise Employment Figure

The Australian dollar rallied quite significantly during the trading session on Thursday, reaching towards the 200 day EMA as the jobs numbers came out much stronger than anticipated.

The Australian dollar has rallied significantly during the trading session on Thursday, reaching towards the 200 day EMA. Having said that, the market has pulled back towards the 50 day EMA and quite frankly I think that we have a lot of work to do. I still like the idea of buying pullbacks, and I think that we will in fact get that opportunity on short-term charts. I still believe that we are in the middle of a trend change, and that of course is very noisy.

Ultimately, this is a market that I believe will go looking towards the 0.70 level given enough time, but I do believe that this is a market that will find plenty of reasons to go higher, not the least of which could be the US/China trade relations getting better, and with this being the case it’s likely that the Australian dollar will continue its path higher but again, it is an area that is going to be very difficult to deal with, and ultimately volatility will be one of the biggest issues when trading the Aussie. Keep your position size small, as you will more than likely get thrown around quite a bit in this market.

If we did break down below the 0.68 handle, that could change things drastically, but right now the resiliency of the Australian dollar is something to be paid attention to. As long as global growth continues, especially across the Pacific Ocean, it’s very likely that the Australian dollar will be one of the biggest beneficiaries of this bullish behaviour.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 0.69.

The projected lower bound is: 0.68.

The projected closing price is: 0.68.

Candlesticks

During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 1 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 15.5175. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 39.21. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 15 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -101.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed unchanged at 0.684. Volume was 13% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 26% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.684 0.688 0.683 0.684 43,530
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.69 0.69 0.69
Volatility: 5 7 7
Volume: 51,034 45,352 65,047

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 0.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods.

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