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Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Pulls Back To Fair Value

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Pulls Back To Fair Value

The Australian dollar has pulled back to fair value during the trading session on Monday as we continue to see a lot of noise when it comes to the US/China trade talks, essentially going nowhere as expected. Unfortunate for Australia, the Australian dollar is highly sensitive to China.

The Australian dollar has initially tried to rally during the trading session on Monday but gave back the gains as soon as the 50 day EMA was tested. Because of this, it makes quite a bit of sense that the market would continue to reach towards the 0.6750 level as it is essentially “fair value” for the reset consolidation since July.

The market continues to see a lot of choppiness in general, because quite frankly there isn’t any news to drive the markets in one direction or the other. As long as that’s the case, it’s likely that the market will continue to see resistance at the 50 day EMA with a significant support level at the 0.67 level.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.68.

The projected upper bound is: 0.69.

The projected lower bound is: 0.67.

The projected closing price is: 0.68.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 1 white candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 74.3590. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 13 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 50.90. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 47 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 105.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed down -0.001 at 0.678. Volume was 19% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 25% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.678 0.680 0.675 0.678 56,195
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.67 0.68 0.70
Volatility: 8 7 8
Volume: 58,740 69,576 85,003

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 2.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of AUD= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 10 periods.

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