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Friday, September 17, 2021

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Pulls Back For the Week

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Pulls Back For the Week

The Australian dollar has initially tried to rally during the week, but then broke down towards the 0.60 level, and hung around that area as it would attract a lot of attention obviously. Ultimately, I think that the market will then continue to see a lot of noise, but at this point it’s likely that the market will continue to move back and forth on the latest coronavirus numbers more than anything else. Ultimately, the global economy is going to continue to struggle due to the fact that nothing is moving, and that of course is going to work against the Australian dollar in general. We are in a downtrend as well, so I think we are going to simply kind of chop back and forth in the meantime.

To the downside, we could very easily go down to the 0.58 level. To the upside, if we were to break above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at the 0.6250 level, then I think the market could then go looking towards the 0.65 level above which is a massive about of resistance just waiting to happen. With that being said, the market is likely to continue to see noisy behavior, as there is a lot of uncertainty out there, which means that it’s difficult to be fully comfortable and stern in any position that you find yourself in. All things being equal though we are still in a downtrend so that’s something to pay attention to more than anything else. US treasuries continue to get a bit of a bid, and that of course helps the greenback as well.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.63.

The projected upper bound is: 0.62.

The projected lower bound is: 0.58.

The projected closing price is: 0.60.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 18.1149. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 39.49. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 25. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed up 0.003 at 0.603. Volume was 66% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 111% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.600 0.605 0.599 0.603 22,914
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.61 0.64 0.67
Volatility: 21 21 12
Volume: 120,986 85,037 63,976

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX AUD= is currently 10.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of AUD= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 59 periods.

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