Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) psychologically important level

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) psychologically important level

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) psychologically important level

The Australian dollar went back and forth during the trading session on Wednesday, as we continue to see a lot of back-and-forth trading, and choppiness to say the least. The Australian dollar of course is highly sensitive to the Chinese situation, which is currently being driven by the US/China trade relations. Australia is one of the most heavily levered to China countries out there, so it makes sense that we will continue to see the fortune of the Aussie be tied to the mainland.

With the Americans and the Chinese meeting over the next couple of days, it should continue to cause a lot of volatility in the Aussie. In general, I believe that the Australian dollar will rally over the longer-term, but we need some type of good news in order to make that happen. The reality of the situation is that the next couple of days could cause wild swings, and I think a lot of traders are simply sitting on the sidelines, which quite frankly is probably the smartest thing to do here.

The best and perhaps the easiest way to trade this market as the pay attention to the US dollar. If the US dollar is strengthening, I would not short the Australian dollar simply because there is a huge 200 PIP barrier of support extending all the way down to the 0.68 level. However, if the US dollar starts to fall in value against most currencies around the world, then it makes sense to buy this pair as we could go to the 0.7150 level.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.71.

The projected upper bound is: 0.71.

The projected lower bound is: 0.69.

The projected closing price is: 0.70.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 39.7114. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 38.07. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 98 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -88. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed up 0.000 at 0.699. Volume was 94% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 45% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.699 0.700 0.698 0.699 6,109

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.70 0.71 0.72
Volatility: 6 7 10
Volume: 80,180 93,395 106,069

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 2.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 10 periods.

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