Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) pressured by doubts that the U.S. and China would be able to pull-off a trade deal before the 2020 U.S. Presidential Elections

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) pressured by doubts that the U.S. and China would be able to pull-off a trade deal before the 2020 U.S. Presidential Elections

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) pressured by doubts that the U.S. and China would be able to pull-off a trade deal before the 2020 U.S. Presidential Elections

The New Zealand and Australian Dollars finished mixed on Wednesday with the Kiwi posting a gain and the Aussie closing unchanged. Both currencies posted two-sided price action before rallying late in the session.

Early in the session the Kiwi and Aussie were pressured by doubts that the U.S. and China would be able to pull-off a trade deal before the 2020 U.S. Presidential Elections. That line of thought was feed by President Trump’s comments on Tuesday.

The currencies began to claw back those earlier losses after a report suggesting progress on the U.S.-China negotiations rekindled risk appetite. Bloomberg reported that Washington and Beijing are moving closer to agreeing on the amount of tariffs to be rolled back in a phase-one trade deal.

The Kiwi and Aussie were also supported by weaker-than-expected U.S. private-sector jobs data on Wednesday and a soft services report that fueled worries about a slowdown in the world’s largest economy.

Weak U.S. Economic Data Supportive

The ADP National Employment Report showed U.S. private-sector hiring in November unexpectedly slowed to its weakest pace in six months, as goods producers and construction companies cut jobs. The median forecast among economists polled by Reuters called for a gain of 140,000 jobs.

Following the soft payrolls report, data showed that the U.S. services sector slowed in November, with the Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index falling 53.9 in November from 54.7 the previous month. The weaker-than-expected U.S. services report came after poor U.S. manufacturing data earlier this week.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 0.69.

The projected lower bound is: 0.68.

The projected closing price is: 0.68.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 81.9817. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 53.16. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 85 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 114.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed down -0.002 at 0.683. Volume was 26% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 41% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.685 0.686 0.682 0.683 45,332
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.68 0.68 0.69
Volatility: 6 7 7
Volume: 43,642 51,175 74,043

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 1.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of AUD= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 11 periods.

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