Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) pressure is coming from renewed concerns over a U.S.-China trade deal
The Australian Dollar is trading lower on Wednesday. The pressure is coming from renewed concerns over a U.S.-China trade deal, a stronger U.S. Dollar and dovish Reserve Bank minutes.
Traders are worried that negotiations between the two economic powerhouses have hit a snag over the rollback of tariffs. President Trump also threatened to raise tariffs on Chinese goods if the two parties do not strike a deal. Consequently, lower demand for risky assets is making the U.S. Dollar an attractive safe-haven asset. Finally, on Tuesday, the RBA minutes showed policymakers considered a rate cut at its meeting on November 5. This opens the door to a potential rate cut in February.
Daily Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .6770 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend changes to up on a move through .6930.
The main range is .6671 to .6930. Its retracement zone at .6800 to .6770 is acting like support. This zone stopped the selling at .6770 last week.
The short-term range is .6930 to .6770. Its retracement zone at .6850 to .6869 is the next potential upside target and resistance.
Daily Technical Forecast
Based on the early price action and the current price at .6806, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at .6800.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 0.69.
The projected lower bound is: 0.67.
The projected closing price is: 0.68.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 3 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 50.3908. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 43.69. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 74 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -88. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed down -0.003 at 0.680. Volume was 28% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 28% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.683 0.683 0.679 0.680 44,355
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.68 0.68 0.69
Volatility: 7 7 8
Volume: 48,113 56,084 77,578
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 2.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 0 periods.