Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) out of the downtrend
The news saw the AUD/USD break convincingly out of the downtrend it had been stuck in since late January this year, extending its rally over the past week to 3.4%.
However, that move quickly reversed in the second half of the session as a combination of a strong US jobs report for October and renewed doubts about the prospect of a near-term trade deal between China and the US saw the Aussie slip back below .7200, a level it remains entrenched below this morning.
“Friday’s US payrolls report exceeded expectations only in respect of the headline non-farm payrolls print with the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7% as expected thanks to a 0.2% rise in the about participation rate, while average hourly earnings printed at 0.2% as expected but which lifted the annual rate to 3.1%, the first time above 3% since 2009,” said Ray Attrill, Head of FX Strategy at the National Australia Bank.
“The data prompted a partial reversal of Thursday’s USD fall back and lifted US bond yields by between 5.9 to 8.2 basis points.”
Along with the strong US jobs report, the Aussie was also weighed down by conflicting reports on progress on trade negotiations between the United States and China.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 0.73.
The projected lower bound is: 0.71.
The projected closing price is: 0.72.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 78.3961. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 57.04. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 128 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 147.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 19 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 15 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed down -0.000 at 0.719. Volume was 94% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 22% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.719 0.720 0.718 0.719 6,393
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.71 0.72 0.75
Volatility: 13 10 10
Volume: 111,671 108,068 104,468
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 3.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 22 periods.
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