Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) now the most important domestic data release when it comes to the outlook for RBA policy rates
In what’s fast becoming a familiar theme, the Aussie weakened against all major crosses except the British pound during the session, failing to garner any support despite a further modest improvement in investor risk appetite.
The AUD/USD lost ground throughout Asian and European trade, eventually bottoming out at .6915 before rebounding modestly towards the close.
At .6927, the AUD/USD closed at the lowest level since January 20, 2016.
The release of weak Australian and Chinese economic data ensured the Aussie remained under pressure.
Not even speculation over additional Chinese stimulus, weak US economic data nor signs of easing trade tensions between the US and EU were enough to reverse the Aussie’s earlier losses.
“The line of least resistance for the AUD remains down,” said Shayne Heffernan, CEO and Founder of Heffx.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.71.
The projected upper bound is: 0.70.
The projected lower bound is: 0.68.
The projected closing price is: 0.69.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 3 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 3 black candles.
A hammer occurred (a hammer has a long lower shadow and closes near the high). Hammers must appear after a significant decline or when prices are oversold (which appears to be the case with FOREX AUD=) to be valid. When this occurs, it usually indicates the formation of a support level and is thus considered a bullish pattern.
A hanging man occurred (a hanging man has a very long lower shadow and a small real body). This pattern can be bullish or bearish, depending on the trend. If it occurs during an uptrend it is called a hanging man line and signifies a reversal top. If it occurs during a downtrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX AUD=) it is called a bullish hammer.
A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 8.3801. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 27.81. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 104 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -156.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 18 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed down -0.000 at 0.689. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 22% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.689 0.689 0.689 0.689 2,049
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.70 0.71 0.71
Volatility: 6 8 10
Volume: 87,291 92,395 106,052
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 3.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of AUD= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 16 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that AUD= is currently in an oversold condition.
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