Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Neutral In The Short-Term
The Australian dollar advanced against its American rival to 0.5975, its highest for this week, with the pair ending the day around 0.5900. Data coming from the country were mixed, as the Commonwealth Bank Services PMI plunged to 39.8 in March according to preliminary estimates, although the manufacturing index for the same period beat expectations with 50.1. PM Scott Morrison announced that the government is extending restrictions on social movements, adding to the world’s social-distancing stance to contain the spread of COVID-19.
Still, the robust surge in equities was what backed the pair, alongside gold prices, which also rallied on the dollar’s broad weakness. Spot gold traded as high as $1,631 a troy ounce, ending the day around 1,622. The Australian macroeconomic calendar will remain empty this Wednesday.
AUD/USD short-term technical outlook
The AUD/USD pair heads into the Asian session with a neutral-to-bullish stance according to intraday charts, as the pair has been stuck around the current level pretty much since London’s opening. The 4-hour chart shows that the price is above a mild-bullish 20 SMA, while the larger moving averages maintain their bearish slopes far above the current level. The Momentum indicator bounced just modestly from its mid-line, while the RSI remains directionless at around 52.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.64.
The projected upper bound is: 0.62.
The projected lower bound is: 0.58.
The projected closing price is: 0.60.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 19 white candles and 29 black candles for a net of 10 black candles.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 76.3594. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 35.71. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -36. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed up 0.007 at 0.603. Volume was 31% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 342% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.595 0.603 0.593 0.603 41,213
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.60 0.65 0.68
Volatility: 37 19 12
Volume: 109,145 72,107 61,991
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 11.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 51 periods.
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