Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) markets will be keeping a close eye on the RBA minutes
AUD/USD showed volatility and gained about 1.0% last week. The markets will be keeping a close eye on the RBA minutes, Australian employment data and Chinese GDP. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
The pair recorded its highest weekly close since the end of January, ending the week at 0.7172. Australia’s Westpac consumer sentiment posted a respectable gain of 1.9%, a sign that the recent budget has been well-received by consumers. In China, CPI rose to 2.3% in March, marking a 5-month high. This has raised hopes that the Chinese economy might be rebounding after suffering a slowdown due to the trade war with the U.S.
There was good news from U.S. inflation numbers, which improved in March. CPI, the key gauge of consumer spending, climbed to 0.4%, its highest gain since January 2018. The producer price index also looked strong, climbing 0.6%, marking a 5-month high.
In a note, Shayne Heffernan said “the Australian economy has been hurt by the slowdown in China, Australia’s largest trade partner. The RBA has maintained interest rate levels, but there have been calls for the RBA to lower rates in order to stimulate the economy. Trade talks between China and the U.S. continue”, but last week a senior U.S. official said that an agreement could be months away.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 0.73.
The projected lower bound is: 0.71.
The projected closing price is: 0.72.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 3 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 73.3333. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 58.19. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 79 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 157.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 20 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed up 0.005 at 0.717. Volume was 12% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 52% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.712 0.719 0.711 0.717 91,593
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.71 0.71 0.72
Volatility: 9 9 10
Volume: 93,732 100,304 107,689
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 0.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 13 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.