Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) market now looking ahead to consumer confidence snapshot

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) market now looking ahead to consumer confidence snapshot

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) market now looking ahead to consumer confidence snapshot

The Australian Dollar slipped on Tuesday following yet more weak economic data, headlined by weaker business confidence.

The index for that from National Australia Bank came in at 2 for February, below January’s 4. It was also the lowest print since the start of 2016. Firms’ assessment of current conditions slipped to 4 from 7. Investment lending also fell, dropping 4.1% after its previous 1.5% slide.

AUD/USD unsurprisingly slipped on the news, with focus now likely to settle on consumer confidence numbers which are due for release on Wednesday.

The Australian economy is still a strong creator of jobs despite plenty of weak economic readings elsewhere. The problem for Australian Dollar bulls though is that there seems to be a complete lack of inflationary pressures.

AUD/USD remains stick in a pervasive downtrend channel on its daily chart. The currency is weighed down by expectations that record-low Australian interest rates may yet fall further. The latest disappointing growth figures didn’t help Aussie bulls’ cause either.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.71.

The projected upper bound is: 0.72.

The projected lower bound is: 0.70.

The projected closing price is: 0.71.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 62.7452. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.28. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 56 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -42. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed up 0.001 at 0.708. Volume was 59% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 27% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.707 0.708 0.706 0.708 44,922

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.71 0.71 0.72
Volatility: 8 11 11
Volume: 96,692 105,252 107,945

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 2.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 19 periods.

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