Home FX AUD Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) market is highly sensitive to the US/China trade...

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) market is highly sensitive to the US/China trade situation

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Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) market is highly sensitive to the US/China trade situation

The Australian dollar has gone back and forth during trading on Thursday, but the one thing that has caught my attention more than anything else is that the 0.69 level has held steady for support.

With that being the case, the market will probably try to reach towards the 0.6950 level, but I also recognize that the 50 pip ranges continue to hold in this market. If we were to break down below the 0.69 level, then it opens the door to the 0.6850 handle. I think trading the Australian dollar right now is quite that basic: we simply are trading back and forth trying to decide which 50 pips we want.

Obviously, the market is highly sensitive to the US/China trade situation, so keep that in mind. That is not getting any better so I’m not overly optimistic for a major break out, but I do recognize that we could have an opportunity to have a significant move down the road. Until the G 20 meeting in a few weeks though, it’s probably going to continue this type of behavior.

It’s just a simple back-and-forth type of market, and I think until we get more solid news on that US/China trade front, this market isn’t going anywhere in a hurry. Because of this, I think you will have to drive the trading decisions by short-term charts such as the 15 minute chart. However, that’s not bad, you simply need to be quick and look for these major levels.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 0.70.

The projected lower bound is: 0.68.

The projected closing price is: 0.69.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 5 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 10.9193. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 41.32. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 19 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -83. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed up 0.000 at 0.692. Volume was 96% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 26% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.691 0.692 0.691 0.692 3,832

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.70 0.70 0.71
Volatility: 6 7 9
Volume: 80,431 88,327 104,230

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 2.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods.

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